The Committee for the Coordination and Supervision of Systemic Dangers, composed of representatives of Financial institution Al Maghrib, the Moroccan Capital Market Authority, the Insurance coverage and Social Safety Authority (ACAPS) and the Treasury and Exterior Finance Authority, held its sixteenth session on Thursday, December 22 at headquarters of Financial institution Al-Maghrib (BAM) in Rabat.

In a press launch, the Committee notes that it assessed the progress of the implementation of the interdepartmental monetary stability roadmap for the interval 2022-2024 and studied the draft of the joint round of the supervisory authorities of the monetary sector associated to monetary conglomerates.

The committee additionally famous that it analyzed the reflection of systemic dangers affecting the nationwide monetary system in a context that’s nonetheless surrounded by nice uncertainty. Subsequently, he reviewed the findings of the month-to-month conferences of his representatives held because the starting of the well being disaster, in addition to the evolution of monitoring indicators. The latter proceed to show the energy and resilience of the Moroccan monetary sector.

After learning the scenario within the monetary system, taking into consideration the noticed and anticipated financial and monetary tendencies, the Committee famous a number of factors.

In line with the Committee, the event of macroeconomic circumstances doesn’t but spotlight the primary dangers which will threaten monetary stability, however vulnerabilities arising from the exterior and inside atmosphere (penalties of the conflict in Ukraine, drought, penalties of the pandemic, inflationary stress), and many others. which require vigilance in line with the identical supply and proceed to be carefully monitored. Nationwide financial development is anticipated to gradual to 1.1% in 2022 earlier than accelerating to three% in 2023 and three.2% in 2024, Financial institution Al-Maghrib forecasts.

As for inflation, after accelerating sharply to six.6% in 2022, the Committee expects it to say no, remaining on common at a excessive degree of round 4% in 2023 and 2024. As for the exterior place, the present account deficit is anticipated to say no. will slim to round 2% over the subsequent two years, whereas official reserve belongings will attain 362.9 billion in 2023 after which 371 billion in 2024, equal to virtually 6 months of imports of products and providers, the identical supply defined.

Relating to public funds, the Committee notes that the price range deficit will step by step lower from 5.3% of GDP in 2022 to 4.6% in 2023 and 4% in 2024. Public debt, for its half, will lower to 67.7% of GDP in 2024. 2023 and 66.1% in 2024.

Regardless of the tough context, the Committee signifies that financial institution loans to the non-financial sector ought to speed up to five.1% in 2022, primarily as a result of liquidity supplied to non-public corporations. It ought to decline to three.3% in 2023 earlier than recovering to five.5% in 2024. The extent of non-performing loans stabilized at 8.7% with a reserve ratio of 67% on the finish of October 2022.

As well as, on the finish of 1H 2022, the banking sector recorded good interim outcomes and a discount in the price of threat, whereas rising rates of interest nonetheless affected 2 the market efficiency, resulting in a 7.5% drop in mixture revenue of banks. The banking sector is robust with common solvency and Tier 1 capital ratios standing at 15.3% and 11.8% respectively in opposition to regulatory lows of 12% and 9%, we emphasize.

On a consolidated foundation, these ratios are 13.3% and 10.8%, the committee emphasizes, noting that banks have liquidity cushions greater than the regulatory minimums. Macro stress testing performed by Financial institution Al-Maghrib primarily based on financial forecasts for December 2022 continues to show as of this date the resilience of banks to shock situations simulating a pointy deterioration in financial circumstances.

With regard to the monetary market infrastructure, in line with the Committee, it continues to show sturdy resilience, each financially and operationally, and continues to pose a low degree of threat to monetary stability.

For its half, the insurance coverage sector continued to show sturdy fundamentals and show its resilience regardless of a difficult worldwide atmosphere marked by important uncertainty. On a technical degree, on the finish of the primary three quarters of this yr, the sector maintained an excellent development price of round 7.7% year-on-year and reached 42.4 billion dirhams.

This growth, the Committee continues, was supported by each the life (+9.5%) and non-life (+6.1%) industries. In monetary phrases, the investments of insurance coverage corporations grew by 3% because the starting of the yr and amounted to 216.7 billion dirhams on the finish of September, it’s emphasised.

Nonetheless, unrealized capital good points fell by 40.6% to 19.3 billion dirhams, specifically because of the fall within the inventory market and rising charges within the secondary market. When it comes to profitability, web earnings on the finish of June was up about 11.3% yr over yr. When it comes to solvency, the sector continues to generate common margins which can be greater than thrice the regulatory minimal.

With regard to the pension sector, the Committee famous that the primary primary techniques are experiencing a tough monetary scenario, marked on the whole by the dimensions of their implicit money owed and the depletion of their reserves at varied horizons. Systemic pension reform ought to enable for the institution of balanced pricing, in addition to to a big extent soak up the uncovered previous liabilities and thus restore the monetary stability sooner or later.

On the Casablanca Inventory Alternate, the MASI index recorded a 15.73% year-to-date decline on December 9, 2022, in opposition to an 18.35% improve in 2021. Common volatility fell to 9.4% versus 10.8% within the first half of 2022. On this context, the general valuation of the inventory market has fallen considerably to 17.2x in opposition to 19.8x on common within the 5 years earlier than the Covid 19 disaster. The quantity of issuance within the inventory market in mid-December 2022 is virtually steady in comparison with the identical interval final yr with a quantity of two.35 billion dirhams. Additionally, the liquidity ratio of the inventory market on the finish of November was 8.51%, having decreased by 13.2% in comparison with the identical interval final yr.

On the degree of the bond market, the Committee emphasizes that charges have gone up in 2022, particularly within the secondary market. This improve in charges was accompanied by a rise in volatility, which reached a excessive degree. Excellent personal debt on the finish of October 2022 was 254 billion dirhams, a rise of 4.1% in comparison with the identical interval final yr. As for non-financial issuers, their web debt at end-June 2022 is at degree 3 broadly beneath management and has fallen to 66% of fairness, in comparison with 68% at end-2021 and 86% at end-2020.

When it comes to asset administration, 2022 noticed the other occurring on the Committee. Consequently, the UCITS sector was affected by the autumn within the inventory market and rising tensions within the rate of interest market, and suffered outflows on the degree of the UCITS MLT Bonds class. , CT bonds and shares.

Whole web UCITS belongings had been AED 536.5 billion as of 9 December 2022, down 9.5% year-on-year. Different asset administration divisions achieved development according to these seen in earlier years, with belongings beneath administration stabilizing for securitization funds and double- and triple-digit development for OPCC and OPCI, respectively. Thus, web belongings of OPCIs reached 49 billion dirhams on the finish of October 2022, a rise of 127% because the starting of the yr, with the desire of funds reserved for certified buyers.

The committee additionally summarized the outcomes of preparatory work for the sphere go to of FATF specialists beneath the coordination of the Nationwide Workplace of Monetary Intelligence. He recommends continued efforts by all stakeholders for the success of this go to.

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