Expires in 2022. There are just a few days left till the beginning of the brand new yr 2023, which we hope might be higher than the earlier one. In any case, 2022 will stay an distinctive yr, stuffed with twists and turns, each good and unhealthy.
Admittedly, now we have to attend a number of months to see the ultimate termination of the accounts. However we have already got an concept of the final information, which must be clarified sooner or later within the gentle of the ultimate outcomes. In any case, the info for the final two months of the yr is not going to spoil the state of affairs.
After all, we don’t intend to compile an exhaustive stability sheet that touches on varied elements of life. Such work can solely be the work of a collective effort, which might be finished on the applicable time by specialised organizations and establishments.
Subsequently, on the macroeconomic stage, referring to the newest information revealed by Financial institution Al Maghrib on the finish of its final board assembly of the yr held on December 20, the Moroccan economic system will register a progress price of 1.1% after a rebound of virtually 8% in 2021. It’s value reminding that the regulation on finance for 2022 predicts a progress price of three.2%, and in accordance with the newest estimates of the Ministry of Economic system and Finance, it has been lowered to 1.8%.
This outcome, which is disappointing to say the least, is principally resulting from a discount in agricultural manufacturing, which fell by 15% after a extreme drought, and a modest improve in non-agricultural exercise by 3.4%.
Additionally, very significantly, inflation continued to rise and reached 6.6% in 2022, after 1.4% in 2021. That is primarily resulting from an acceleration within the worth of meals, gasoline and lubricants.
When it comes to exterior balances, the outcomes are combined, regardless of the great efficiency of our exports, which recovered by 32.3%, primarily resulting from gross sales of phosphates and derivatives, because of the rise in costs, in addition to the exports of the automotive business, that are resulting from be reduce off. all information this yr.
On the identical time, imports will improve by 38.4% in 2022, primarily masking a 102% improve in vitality payments to 153.2 billion DH, a rise in purchases of semi-finished merchandise and a rebound of virtually 90% to 27.2 million DH in provides. wheat. The results of this differentiated evolution between imports and exports: a widening of the commerce deficit and a discount within the protection stage.
In the identical vein, our stability of funds will present a deficit of three.3% of GDP (in opposition to 2.3% in 2021), regardless of a 20% enchancment in MRE transfers to Dh105.8 billion and journey receipts which skilled an actual rebound to 88.8 billion dirhams (in comparison with barely 34 billion in 2021).
As for overseas direct funding, the anticipated return this yr might be about 3% of GDP, which is roughly the common worth for current years. This may be thought of passable within the context of uncertainty, environment of battle and doubts about globalization.
Alternatively, on the social stage, regardless of the progress within the generalization of social safety, the state of affairs stays alarming because of the mixed influence of quite a few components: the extravagant improve in the price of dwelling, the impoverishment of the inhabitants, particularly the center lessons, the failure of the social elevator, the fixed deterioration of state companies and particularly training, sustaining a excessive stage of unemployment, particularly amongst younger graduates.
Admittedly, the federal government has tried to handle the violations with measures that stay remoted and partial, such because the help offered to carriers and the strengthening of subsidies offered by the Caisse de Compensation. However for the remainder, we enable the legal guidelines of the market to function, which finally play solely into the palms of the ruling lessons.
Regulators, whose main mission is to right dysfunctions, have been relegated to the background, and their views are not often heeded except they’re merely silenced.
On the stage of our overseas coverage, we have to be glad with the successive victories achieved in favor of our territorial integrity after the pursuit of efficient and productive diplomacy and the lively presence of Morocco on the world and regional stage in compliance with excessive royal directions. Thus, the noose is tightened increasingly on our adversaries, who’re extra remoted than ever on the worldwide stage to the purpose that the pseudo-SADR is now only a chimera.
Lastly, after a protracted interval of financial sluggishness, we’re as soon as once more witnessing a glimmer of hope following the current rains which have lashed a lot of the nationwide territory.
And as auspicious event by no means occurs alone, this benevolent mercy from the Heavens, which we hope will proceed, has coincided with the epic achieved by our valiant nationwide soccer workforce, ending fourth on the Qatar World Cup, en path to 11 locations on this planet soccer rating.
Let this feat serve for example and an incentive for our leaders to arrange us for 2023, which breaks with the gloom of the yr that’s ending.