2022 is rapidly being forgotten on the Casablanca Inventory Trade as the frustration was nice. Over the previous twelve months, the Moroccan All Share Index (MASI) has fallen 19.75%, marking a notable break within the post-Covid restoration that started in 2021 (+18.35%). Certainly, nearly 129.61 billion dirhams (MMDH) of capitalization went up in smoke.

Nonetheless, the fund 12 months began nicely. The MASI even reached an all-time excessive of 13,991.47 on February 10, representing an annual acquire of 4.74%. Nevertheless, issues started within the second half of the identical month, with the start of the Russian-Ukrainian disaster and a pointy rise in inflation and power costs on the worldwide degree. Thus the preliminary optimism gave approach to concern and uncertainty.

The Casablanca Inventory Trade, which subsequently tried to recuperate a bit after publishing encouraging annual ends in mid-March, rapidly resumed its downward path as a result of lack of visibility within the macroeconomic context. nationwide and worldwide financial uncertainty. The downward development was additional strengthened, particularly, beneath the affect of experiences on the rise of the important thing charge of Financial institution Al Maghrib (BAM).

“Traders are actually in a rush to show the web page on 2022, which was a foul 12 months for the inventory market each in Morocco and internationally,” mentioned Farid Mezouar, chief govt of FLMarkets, MAP.

On the Casablanca Inventory Trade, traders influenced by information from the worldwide inventory market additionally reacted to the 100bp enhance in BAM charges, explains Mr Mezoir, noting on this sense that the MSCI Rising Markets suffered a correction in 2022 of approx. by 22% because of inflationary strain, the conflict in Ukraine and tightening of financial coverage by the principle central banks.

Additionally, the professional explains, Moroccan traders appear to be afraid of the impression of the rise in BAM charges on the financial exercise and earnings of banks, citing the results of market exercise for instance.

Winners and losers of the 12 months

In line with Mezuard, environment friendly stock-market-level stock-picking may enable MASI to outperform.

“Certainly, a number of titles ended the 12 months within the black with Managem as one of the best instance. “Equally, a number of sectors posted good development in 2022, benefiting particularly from the restoration from COVID and the sturdy efficiency of the greenback,” he clarifies.

So, intimately, 4 indexes had been in a position to maintain their positions. Led by them, the mining sector, which soared by 32.73%, rose primarily by Managem (+61.15%) and, to a lesser extent, Rebab Firm (+ 3.23%) and SMI (+1.40%).

Pushed by its single identify Med Paper, the forestry and paper sector ended the 12 months up 25.35%, the second finest efficiency of the 12 months, adopted by electrical energy represented by Taqa Morocco (+4.57%) and leisure. and the lodge sector (RISMA with +3.87%).

However, most sectors ended the 12 months with a double-digit lag. The index of building and constructing supplies, affected by a fragile financial scenario, marked, particularly, by the consequences of inflation on margins and volumes, fell by 34.98%. Sure, on the particular person degree, LafargeHolcim Morocco fell 38.64%, Ciments du Maroc misplaced 32.63%, TGCC misplaced 26.64%, Sonasid -15.45%, Colorado -10.80% and Jet Contractors -10.43 %

The telecommunications sector fell by 31.88%, and the true property and improvement sector fell by 27.15%.

Additionally on the backside of the desk are holdings-holdings (-27.11%), transport providers (-22.83%), agribusiness/manufacturing (-19.32%), oil and fuel (-16.4%), chemical substances (- 16.1%), banks (-17.19%) and insurance coverage (-16.89%).

Finest efficiency in 2023?

Relating to the outlook for the inventory market, the FLMarkets CEO believes that on a theoretical degree, 2023 must be a worthwhile 12 months for the markets “as a result of, other than the brand new Black Swan, all of the dangerous information is understood. Subsequently, traders ought to regularly take up the excellent news.”

Certainly, Morocco’s 2022 annual outcomes, launched in March 2023, ought to increase costs, as traders appeared to disregard the expansion in listed corporations’ revenues (+14% on the finish of September) and their earnings (+15 , 8% on the finish of June 2022), notes Mr. Mezuar, recalling, as well as, the BAM forecasts, which present a projected development of three% in 2023 towards 1.1% in 2022.

He additionally talked about the impression of the Finance Invoice 2023, including that taxation could be harder on giant corporations, although the rise within the company tax charge could be phased in over 4 years.

“That is, in fact, a adverse indicator, however corporations which have pricing energy (banks, for instance) will at all times be capable of share a part of this tax burden with their prospects,” he mentioned.

For Valoris Securities, which expects common pre-tax revenue development of three.2% per 12 months between 2022 and 2025, the minimal impression of LF-2023 on mixture revenue capability is estimated at 1.4 billion dirhams over the interval beneath evaluation, of which extra greater than 40% of this publicity is within the monetary sector (banking and insurance coverage) along with the telecommunications sector (25% publicity).

Subsequently, the brokerage agency predicts a strengthening within the coming years of investments in industrial corporations and providers of average dimension because of investments within the banking and insurance coverage sectors.

SOURCES :

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